Oscars Watch 2017: The Less-Depressing Campaign: Final Calls Before The Nominations

Well, guys, we’re finally here. Tomorrow, the nominations come out, and you all discover me for the guessing fraud that I am. But before I’m exposed, why don’t I make one last call for what the nominations are gonna look like? Forged out of Guild Awards, other predictions, and stubborn gut feelings, this is my official prediction for the 85th Academy Awards.

Commentary comes where anything has been added or changed. I’m not calling Shorts because…who could?

Best Picture:
La La Land
Moonlight
Manchester by the Sea
Fences
Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Arrival
Lion

  • Officially calling 9 nominees for Best Picture this year, there’s a lot that’s getting enough attention to make over the usual 8.
  • Silence, sadly, is gone. Paramount completely screwed up this release by being scared of it. No early watching, no attempt to sell it to the faith community, no wide guild support, no angle. Silence could have been, but I think it’s going to have a longer life than this award season. Alas, this is not the article for that.

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

  • Officially taking the writing on the wall. Captain Fantastic apparently ran a smart and quiet campaign and got Viggo Mortensen some attention. Good for him.

Best Actress:
Amy Adams, Arrival
Annette Benning, 20th Century Women
Isabelle Huppert, Elle 
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land

  • I’ll get into it a little later, but Arrival got seriously major attention from the guilds and early awards love. So I think Amy Adams’ central performance is going to make it in over the surprisingly inert Loving.

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

  • I really think it’s weird that Octavia Spencer is the one with awards momentum here. She’s kind of barely in the movie, and not really doing anything we’ve not seen her do before. Janelle Monae is way more interesting, but whatever, anyone from that cast getting recognized is a good thing.

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Garth Davis, Lion
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

  • The first story here is the way that the Guilds pretty much anointed Arrival. The main frontrunners have played really well, but Arrival managed to get WGA/DGA/PGA, which means that at least in terms of nominations this is gonna be a force to be reckoned with. Which is why (deservingly) Villeneuve is sitting in this category for putting it all together.
  • So that leaves the final slot. I’m going to go along with the DGA sweep and give it to Lion given that the film got nominated in both the main category and the first-timer category.

Best Original Screenplay:
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
The Lobster

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

  • Going along with how Silence seems to be getting totally ignored for creative awards seems right here. Nocturnal Animals has been getting some surprise love, so seems right to throw it in here, especially given the WGA and Golden Globes admiration.

Best Original Score:
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
The BFG

  • Yeah…so this is La La Land‘s category. Everything else is just to fill it out, Hurwitz’s score is delightful and powerful, and a musical this popular isn’t going to lose the Score award.
  • Why the rest? I think the way Mica Levi’s score pulls Jackie along is going to get attention as the film gets a lot of technical and below-the-line attention. Lion and Moonlight both have pretty essential scores in the way that they play in the film and have been noted in a lot of critic work. The BFG is John Williams. Never count him out.

Best Original Song:
“Runnin’” – Hidden Figures
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land
City of Stars” – La La Land
“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana
Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls

Best Cinematography:
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

  • A really solid list here recognizing a pretty gorgeous bunch of films. This is pretty much just the Guild Awards, which I think are a pretty good measuring stick of where things are in this category.

Best Costume Design:
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hidden Figures
Jackie
La La Land

  • I think this is gonna be a mostly period-flick heavy year minus the technical tear La La Land is gonna go on. That was my guiding principle, taking guesses from the Guild Awards and other guesses. Hidden Figures is honestly a gut call.

Best Editing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

  • This is pretty much the Dramatic Editor’s Guild Awards with La La Land subbed in because Tom Cross won on Whiplash. I don’t think we’re gonna find too many surprises here.

Best Production Design:
Arrival
Hail, Caesar!
Jackie
La La Land
Silence

  • This is an award that really favors period-picture work as well, so I’m going with the biggest works from that with an indulgence pick for Hail, Caesar! Then La La Land because you should know the score by now.

Best Sound Editing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Silence

Best Sound Mixing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

  • Totally honest here? I took wild guesses based on other predictions. I will learn to call Sound awards one day!

 

Best Visual Effects:
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

  • Since I put Arrival ALL over the place for technical awards, I’m just gonna go ahead and stay consistent and put Arrival in Visual Effects as well.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Deadpool
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond

Best Animated Feature Film:
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Best Documentary:
13th
Cameraperson
I Am Not Your Negro
OJ Made in America
Weiner

  • Cameraperson is one that’s had enough buzz and collecting more and more awards that I think it’s going to lock in its place here over Fire at Sea. 

Best Foreign Language Film:
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
The Salesman

Final (Predicted) Stats:
Most Nominations:
La La Land – 13 nominations
Arrival – 10 nominations
Moonlight – 8 nominations
Manchester by the Sea and Lion – 6 nominations
Hidden Figures and Hacksaw Ridge – 5 nominations
43 total films nominated.

 

Advertisements