Oscars Watch 2017: The Less-Depressing Campaign: Final Prediction

Today is the day. The day the hot takes and the speculation and the weird Oscar narratives and the gladhanding comes to an end as the 89th Academy Awards will hand out the trophies to a largely deserving group of nominees.

Before I make my final call, I just want to make a quick statement. I’ll admit that this sort of column doesn’t help, but every year, we get a little too tied up in what the Oscars mean for these films and their future. Fun fact: Winning an Oscar rarely means much in the long run. In fact, history tends to look kinder on the losers of Best Picture than its winners.

The Oscars, for anyone outside of the industry and anyone who isn’t winning one, are ultimately about exposure. About putting what the industry sees as its best face forward. Nominations are as important as anything else because it shows people the films that we should pay attention to.

Ultimately, what that means is that yes, only a handful of these films are gonna win. Likely not your favorite or the one that you think matters. But those wins and losses will pass into aether of film history. Trivia for cinephiles and pub quizzes.

What ultimately matters for these films is that you see them. That you go out and support them. Rent them on iTunes, buy the DVDs, see the ones in theaters that you still can, go see the next movie each of these filmmakers make. Talk about them, discuss them, internalize their messages. The power of filmmaking is that it lives with us, in our daily lives, as a part of our experiences. Engaging and loving these films is what’s going to give them power and keep other films like them getting made.

Tonight won’t determine which of these become classics. You, the viewer, will. Use your power.

With no further adieu, my predictions.

Best Picture:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

  • This is a low-confidence pick. Casey Affleck could also take this award.

Best Actress:
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

  • Potential spoiler: Dev Patel.

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Best Original Screenplay:
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
The Lobster

  • This is a low-confidence pick. La La Land could take this award.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Best Original Score:
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

Best Original Song:
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land
City of Stars” – La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
“The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

Best Cinematography:
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

Best Costume Design:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

  • Potential spoiler: La La Land

Best Editing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

Best Production Design:
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

 Best Sound Editing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

Best Sound Mixing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Best Visual Effects:
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

Best Animated Feature Film:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Best Documentary:
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
OJ Made in America

  • This is a low-confidence pick. Documentary often stands to surprise.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
The Salesman

  • This is a low-confidence pick. Foreign Language often stands to surprise.

Best Documentary Short
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

Best Animated Short
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

Best Live Action Short
Ennemis Interieurs

La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

 

Advertisements