Tag Archives: oscars 2017

Oscars Watch 2017: The Far Less-Depressing Campaign: What Did That All Mean?

So…wow guys.

Look, I know I’d been talking predictable for the Oscars this year, and I realize now that I’m sorely wrong about that. Trust me, my ballot shows it. For better and for worse, this year knew how to keep us on the toes.

There’s enough recaps of the whole night out there (including one elsewhere from me), so I won’t bore you by going over the clips you’ve seen a hundred times, praising and jeering what’s already been plenty praised and plenty jeered. Instead, I want to try to dive a little deeper here, and get into some of the political and industrial shifts and moral questions raised by the winners that we’ll have to deal with.

First things first, Moonlight won Best Picture. That’s huge for a lot of reasons. It’s a 1.6 million dollar film from a first-time production company (though long-time Distribution company) that was made by a majority Black production crew with an all Black cast that told the story of a young Black gay man.

It’s an almost direct repudiation to the idea that Black films simply don’t have an audience. Moonlight is not a slavery narrative nor a Civil Rights narrative. It’s a contemporary one about the Black experience as it exists in the modern day. It does those same things with its queer themes, telling the story of a gay man coming into his own with fullness, even ending on a romantic and joyful note. It’s unabashed about that, it presents the world with thought and deep deep empathy. And it won. That’s major, and it’s likely the clearest signal to Hollywood that these contemporary stories do have a prestige audience, even if they should have had that signal YEARS AGO.

It’s also a signal of a shift in the industrial necessity of filmmaking. It’s no secret that the film industry is staring at a bit of a precipice and it’s absolutely trying to figure out where to go right now. The mid-budget picture is all but gone as filmmaking increasingly splinters into massive budget and low budget. This puts the major studios over a barrel in how to keep up on both ends, and that leaves a vacuum for new groups to move in.

Last night was pretty much the confirmation that A24 and Amazon Studios would likely be those, with A24 functioning as the millennial Miramax. Amazon Studios seems to simply be the benefit of a great cash stream, picking up great films and giving them strong campaigns. A24 is a bit bigger.

Moonlight was the first film fully financed by A24, making it their first film as Production company rather than just as Distributor. Which means, yes, the first film from A24 won Best Picture. For a company that went from a dotted few wins to Best Picture in a year after being founded 5 years ago, that’s a huge deal. Expect to hear their name again, A24 has all eyes on it now more than ever. The A24 style is gonna get hot, as is their penchant for allowing directors a lot of room to tell unique, singular, visually stylish stories on low budgets. Putting 1.6 million (the kind of money a young first-timer could finance) into a film and getting a Best Picture out of it is the model everyone is going to try to follow.

The second big thing we need to talk is the Best Actor win. Casey Affleck won out over Denzel Washington. Casey is, of course, mired in controversy for 2010 sexual harassment allegations. This is the art and the artist conversation we’ve had for years, but it reflects an interesting wrinkle to the way we do awards.

With awards, we usually ask two separate questions. Does the performance merit it and does the performer merit it? This is how we get narratives like “It’s DiCaprio’s time” where he wins for a performance that is impressive but not necessarily good or what he’s good at. We think through what’s deserved for the performer based on who they are and their history.

In other words, separating art from the artist doesn’t just mean excusing the artist for the art. It means understanding how the artist and the art really are separate, and that we must look at them separately. That also means that both must factor in when we ask questions about rewarding any singular piece of art. Because though we separate them, we view an award as a validation of the art and the artist.

I bring this up here because the question of whether Casey Affleck deserves the award for this performance and whether we should give it to him are two entirely different questions. Does his performance deserve the award? Despite what the revisionism may tell you, of course he does. Casey’s performance in Manchester by the Sea is EXTRAORDINARY. A truly all-timer, jaw-dropping cinematic performance that wears years of history and pain and grief effortlessly, that carves out a character that you truly do feel for.

Does he deserve it though? Does Casey himself deserve it? With that sin hanging over his head, no. It’s a reward for bad behavior, a proof that he really could just get away with being an absolute scumbag to the women he had power over. Remember, this was on a film that he was directing, he had power over those people. The art may be worthy, the artist is not. We validated the artist by validating the art, and we have to wrestle with the fact that a harasser was validated by that.

It’s important to understand too that good art can come from bad people. Every time we pretend that only good people make good art, we create the environment where people get away with all manner of misdeed. We refuse to believe the people we like and that we look up to can be evil. Hell, that’s the message of the Best Documentary winner from this year. OJ Simpson was OJ, he could never murder anyone no matter what.

We have to understand art in its fullness and wrestle with what it means to see deep empathy come from people who don’t seem to feel it themselves. It’s how we begin to actually break down the power structures where when you’re a celebrity, you can apparently get away with anything.

Finally, I just want to say that I’m again incredibly thrilled for Moonlight. I love La La Land, but I think Moonlight is the first film in decades that can bear the weight of being a Best Picture nominee, and certainly the best film that’s won since 2007 or possibly 1993. I’m looking forward to the hopeful shift in storytelling possibilities that Moonlight winning will allow for the industry, and I’m looking forward to La La Land being a movie that I’m allowed to just enjoy and no longer being the avatar of film industry evil.

So yeah, that was a hell of a thing. I’ll see you all next year.

Oscars Watch 2017: The Less-Depressing Campaign: Final Prediction

Today is the day. The day the hot takes and the speculation and the weird Oscar narratives and the gladhanding comes to an end as the 89th Academy Awards will hand out the trophies to a largely deserving group of nominees.

Before I make my final call, I just want to make a quick statement. I’ll admit that this sort of column doesn’t help, but every year, we get a little too tied up in what the Oscars mean for these films and their future. Fun fact: Winning an Oscar rarely means much in the long run. In fact, history tends to look kinder on the losers of Best Picture than its winners.

The Oscars, for anyone outside of the industry and anyone who isn’t winning one, are ultimately about exposure. About putting what the industry sees as its best face forward. Nominations are as important as anything else because it shows people the films that we should pay attention to.

Ultimately, what that means is that yes, only a handful of these films are gonna win. Likely not your favorite or the one that you think matters. But those wins and losses will pass into aether of film history. Trivia for cinephiles and pub quizzes.

What ultimately matters for these films is that you see them. That you go out and support them. Rent them on iTunes, buy the DVDs, see the ones in theaters that you still can, go see the next movie each of these filmmakers make. Talk about them, discuss them, internalize their messages. The power of filmmaking is that it lives with us, in our daily lives, as a part of our experiences. Engaging and loving these films is what’s going to give them power and keep other films like them getting made.

Tonight won’t determine which of these become classics. You, the viewer, will. Use your power.

With no further adieu, my predictions.

Best Picture:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

  • This is a low-confidence pick. Casey Affleck could also take this award.

Best Actress:
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

  • Potential spoiler: Dev Patel.

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Best Original Screenplay:
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
The Lobster

  • This is a low-confidence pick. La La Land could take this award.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Best Original Score:
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

Best Original Song:
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land
City of Stars” – La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
“The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

Best Cinematography:
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

Best Costume Design:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

  • Potential spoiler: La La Land

Best Editing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

Best Production Design:
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

 Best Sound Editing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

Best Sound Mixing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Best Visual Effects:
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

Best Animated Feature Film:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Best Documentary:
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
OJ Made in America

  • This is a low-confidence pick. Documentary often stands to surprise.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
The Salesman

  • This is a low-confidence pick. Foreign Language often stands to surprise.

Best Documentary Short
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

Best Animated Short
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

Best Live Action Short
Ennemis Interieurs

La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

 

Oscars Watch 2017: The Less-Depressing Campaign: What Should Win?

Hi folks. We’re just 5 days away from the Oscars, so while you’re getting your predictin’ hats on, let’s have a little talks about preferences.

As much an annual tradition as the gowns and the jokes and the speeches, the Oscars bring about a whole lot of talk about what should “actually” be winning. Whether it’s for political reasons, simple preference, or the fact that you tend to love stuff that would never make it into competition, everyone has their Oscar also-rans and things to get up in arms over. Hell, I haven’t agreed with a Best Picture winner since 2006 (The Departed). 

So, why not give some of mine? After all, I’m some jerk with a blog. That makes me perfect to shout about what should be winning in these categories (instead of what will win) and shout about what should have made it in. To keep this from going too long? I’m gonna write about the big categories and just give my preferences on the Below-The-Line, minus a few notes.

Best Picture (Ranked in order of preference):
Moonlight/La La Land

Arrival
Manchester by the Sea
Lion
Hell or High Water
Fences
Hidden Figures

A severe and vicious beating around the genitals.

Hacksaw Ridge

  • Should Win: So, actually choosing between the two frontrunners this year is probably about as hard as it gets for me. I love both dearly for entirely different reasons (well, I absolutely marvel at the craft of both), and I think both absolutely, in a perfect world, should win. I understand what’s at stake here, and for those reasons, my preference would be that Moonlight wins on Sunday night. That being said, this is my own article, so both are gonna tie for right now.
  • Should Be Here: Silence over Hacksaw Ridge. Silence is everything Hacksaw Ridge isn’t.

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

  • Should Win: As fraught as it is, Casey Affleck is giving a truly next-level performance. Manchester by the Sea almost wholly rests on him and what he’s capable of as an actor, and I can’t deny how great he is in this role.
  • Should Be Here: Adam Driver in Paterson over Andrew Garfield in Hacksaw Ridge. Driver gives a truly powerful performance in Paterson with the most subtle tools possible.

Best Actress:
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

  • Should Win: Yeah, I’m not particularly taken with Streep here, and I have serious reservations about Elle as a film. Negga and Portman are great, but I don’t think I love them quite as much as the simplistic performance of Stone and the way she pulls the rhythms of La La Land along.
  • Should Be Here: Amy Adams in Arrival over Meryl Streep in Florence Foster Jenkins. You’re telling me the woman around which a film that has received 8 nominations revolves doesn’t deserve a nomination? Amy Adams does not get the respect she deserves.

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

  • Should Win: Really, if I could give an award to everyone here? I totally would. If you could name a list of people who deserves Oscars, it would be everyone on this list. Especially Michael Shannon, who is the best. Let’s remember how great he is for a second.
    gettyimages-602226388That being said, the final scene that Ali has in Moonlight has him on rightful top here. Ali is doing work that any other actor would dream of, and it’s time to recognize him for it.
  • Should Be Here: Let’s just go ahead and say Trevante Rhodes, who plays the adult Chiron. The best performance of the year and the fact that it’s not here is a failure of campaigning and imagination.

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

  • Should Win: Viola Davis is incredible in Fences, a reconfiguring of the role that she won a Tony for in a really powerful way. She’s the object around which the gravity of this film orbits, yet she never feels like she’s overpowering the screen.
  • Should Be Here: Janelle Monae in Hidden Figures for Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures. That entire ensemble is great, but Monae is the true star there, an almost impossible to look away from talent.

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

  • Should Win: Again, an almost impossible competition (minus one), but Jenkins does extraordinary work in Moonlight, telling a story of raw artifice, something that few filmmakers in America can try and even fewer can pull off. Calling to mind directors like Wong Kar-Wai or European masters, Moonlight is imbued with a rare sensuality and remarkable care and sweetness.
  • Should Be Here: Realistically? Let’s say David Mackenzie from Hell or High Water who elevated what could have been a standard pissed-off drama into the artful and heat-drenched mediation it was. Unrealistically? The Daniels from Swiss Army Man for the sheer audacity of what they pulled off. Either way, they should be here over Mel Gibson, who I can’t believe I might have to see make Suicide Squad 2. 

Best Original Screenplay:
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
The Lobster

  • Should Win: Manchester by the Sea is just a staggering piece of writing, the kind of thing that just awes you every time you realize how universal and relatable a story Kenneth Lonergan composed in such a specific space.
  • Should Be Here: Paterson. It’s just such a perfect piece of form-meets-function writing and such a lovely world that it crafts and lives in.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

  • Should Win: Honestly, just read Moonlight and tell me that isn’t the best script read you’ve ever had. Shout out to Arrival too, which would absolutely be my choice any other year, and would have been if Moonlight hadn’t moved to Adapted.
  • Should Be Here: The Handmaiden. That mid-movie twist alone is a feat of screenwriting magic.

Best Animated Feature Film:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

  • Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings is a really impressive piece of animated filmmaking and scripting, thematically interesting and ambiguous in a way films like this often aren’t. Plus just a total visual masterwork. It’s time for Laika to get a win dammit!
  • Should Be Here: Sausage PartyDon’t @ me.

 Best Documentary:
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
OJ Made in America

  • Should Win: I’m gonna be honest, I think I Am Not Your Negro would make top 10 if I had seen it before my deadline for last year. An incredible piece of filmmaking that absolutely deserves to be seen by everyone and everybody. Baldwin has never looked better than in cinema.
  • Should Be Here: Weiner over Life, Animated. Weiner is a hilarious and incredibly relevant piece of filmmaking, where Life, Animated is sweet and kind of a total puff in terms of what it pulls off.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
The Salesman

  • Haven’t had the chance to see any of these yet. Hope to rectify that by Sunday.

Best Original Score:
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

  • Should Be Here: Arrival. Its disqualification was total bullshit.  

Best Original Song:
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land
City of Stars” – La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
“The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

  • Should Be Here: So much. Honestly, let’s just give an alternate category.
    Another Day of Sun” – La La Land
    Drive It Like You Stole It” – Sing Street
    “I’m So Humble” – Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping
    “Try Everything” – Zootopia
    “How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

Best Cinematography:
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

Best Costume Design:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

Best Editing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land

Moonlight

Best Production Design:
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

Should Be Here: Nocturnal Animals. On every level, I don’t think there was a better designed movie this year, but that should be no surprise from Tom Ford.

 Best Sound Editing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

Best Sound Mixing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Best Visual Effects:
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

Oscar Season Catch-Up Part 1

It’s that magical time of year, where I scramble to watch anything and everything to get one day close to my goal of having actually seen everything nominated for an Oscar. While I’m a little too late to really want to do full reviews of anything, I’d like to share a few thoughts about these films, as these are going to be the sort of movie that absolutely inspire conversation.

Elle

…hoo boy.

Okay, look, I’m still not entirely sure how I feel about all of what’s going on here, this is a movie I’ve wrestled with pretty much from minute 2 inside the theater where I sat alone on a Thursday night.

For those of you unfamiliar, Elle is the first French language production from legendary director Paul Verhoeven (Robocop, Starship Troopers, Showgirls) starring the “European Meryl Streep” Isabelle Huppert. Huppert stars as Michelle Leblanc, a video game developer who is raped in her home by an unknown home invader. This starts the film, as from there she attempts to grapple with family issues, relationships, work, and taking revenge on her perpetually unknown assailant.

No matter what, there are two things worthy of recognition about this film. The first is Verhoeven’s directorial hand. Steady and unblinking as ever, Elle is a film that absolutely sells the world it’s creating and is absolutely confident in whatever bizarre twists and comedic turns (yes, comedic, we’ll return to that in a second).

The other is Isabelle Huppert’s lead performance. It’s a masterclass of acting with restraint, of how to wear everything in an almost imperceptible way, and how to bounce off the people around you rather than driving it all yourself. It’s how to make a film orbit around you, rather than drive it.

Now, where my pause comes is largely personal. From moment one, something felt wrong here. Not wrong in the provocative way that Verhoeven is clearly going for, trying to make what could be lightly tinged as a rape revenge comedy. Wrong in the way that perhaps this was ultimately a misguided project, an attempt to tell a story that requires a certain amount of nuance from a perspective that ultimately has none.

In other words, a story about an explicitly female perspective from an exclusively male perspective. There’s a psychological wrongness here, an attempt to shove patriarchal ideals into a supposedly feminist text. There’s a lessening of sympathy, deliberately, for Leblanc, so that perhaps rape does not impact her as hard, that its effect sloughs off you. It goes further by revealing and playing with a dark past, an almost unforgivable possible sin. Perhaps introducing an idea that she in some way is being punished.

It’s undoubtedly provocative, but provocation is delicate as is, and it’s difficult to find in Elle the necessary driving home, the point of all this provocation. Provocation should raise necessary question and lay out its possible answers, not simply raise the questions for the sake of raising them.

In other words, Elle feels to a large degree exploitative. As thought Verhoeven can’t get past the subject to get to the point. Combined with glacial pacing, I left Elle with an extraordinarily bad taste in my mouth, beyond my own issues with seeing a rape reenacted again and again.

I Am Not Your Negro

This is as essential as I ever think viewing gets.

I Am Not Your Negro pulses with absolute and utter vitality, a revolutionary fervor that belies the calm acceptance of what has to be done to change the system. Based on the notes of the final unfinished manuscript by American author and Civil Rights activist James Baldwin, the manuscript and the structure is the story of three murdered men: Malcolm X, Martin Luther King Jr., and Medgar Evers.

But through this, Baldwin is telling the story of America. And as Baldwin puts it “The story of the Negro in America is the story of America. It is not a pretty story.” Peck is juxtaposing what Baldwin saw in his day and the contemporary struggles of Black Lives Matter, the stories of Ferguson and country-wide police brutality, and the progress that still is to be made and what has been done.

But that juxtaposition is so that Peck can facilitate allowing Baldwin to tell one final story. Everything, from the Samuel L. Jackson narration to the structure of the film, is to let Baldwin’s voice speak. This is a film by James Baldwin, dictated to Raoul Peck. Baldwin’s vitality and revolutionary fire show through at every moment, this is his story to tell, cinema a uniquely powerful medium for him.

There’s a confrontation to this film, one that legitimately forced me to question myself and what I did and thought. For that alone, this film is worth it, for the thoughts you’ve never had, the feelings you’ve never quite felt. It’s cinema at its most direct, cinema as the machine that generates empathy and something yet still further, generates action.

OJ: Made In America

2016 was the year of OJ Simpson. As we saw the intersections of race, prejudice, power, and celebrity collide in front of our faces, both American Crime Story and this sprawling epic of a documentary commissioned by ESPN out of its 30 for 30 series seemed to go back to show us that we’ve had this debate for, letting us know what lessons we apparently still have to learn.

Made in America differs from American Crime Story in how far back it pulls from the larger story. If American Crime Story is a drill-down, examining every aspect of the trial from every angle and digging deep down into the relationships, Made in America is a contextual view, providing all the context for why every decision was made, examining it in the broader scope of race in L.A.

It takes a deft hand to make a talking head documentary into something cinematically compelling, so hats off to director Ezra Edelman for doing it. The editing is key here, weaving together source after source of footage into a tightly wound and even tense narrative. The White Bronco chase has so passed into American lore that it still ranks as impressive if you can make that feel fresh or new or exciting.

As for the TV vs. Film debate (which is it?), the answer is that it’s whatever the hell you want it to be, honestly. It aired in multiple episodes on ESPN and that’s how most people consumed it, but it was also put out as a single 8 hour piece in cinemas. If the Oscars are evaluating the 8 hour piece, then that’s a film in my book. If you’re looking at the episodic experience? That’s TV. Why limit if it’s designed, crafted, and released as two separate mediums.

Oscars Watch 2017: The Less-Depressing Campaign: The Real Race Begins

Well, one of the major competitions of February ended only in heartbreak for me, so let’s not dwell there. Instead, it’s time for the Oscars! The nominations have given way to the actual race, where things have narrowed down significantly. The dark horses are out of the way, and now it’s time for the big boys to duke it out.

Not gonna lie. Way back when, I would have called this for a tighter race, more fiercely fought competitions. But as the Guilds begin to hand out their individual awards, it’s becoming clearer and clearer that there’s one juggernaut named La La Land in this game and everything else is picking up whatever’s left in the wake.

Unless you’re Ryan Gosling.

But yeah, let’s get into it.

Best Picture:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

  • Like I said, we’re pretty much seeing no real challenge to La La Land here. It’s running ramshod over every competitor, and the love the industry has for this movie pretty much points to nothing being able to find another foothold. Moonlight hasn’t managed to find its angle yet and that’s the only real possibility here.
  • By the way, when La La Land wins, can we all agree to a moratorium on the “What Does This Particular Win Mean in TRUMP’S AMERICA” takes? They’re exhausting already and it’s been less than a month. They’re happening after basically every major cultural event, and they’ve never found a single new angle or interesting insight. This way of engaging with art as solely indicative of political utility is deleterious, not to add on with the danger of placing the Awards Season context onto the film itself.

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

  • So, here’s your nailbiter this year. There’s a crazy amount of momentum on both Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington’s side. Affleck has the super wide critical acclaim and the momentum on his film’s side as well as a host of critics and other organizational awards. He’s also got sexual harassment allegations that seem to pop back into the public consciousness from time to time. Washington has super wide critical acclaim without momentum on Fences‘ side, but he has the SAG Award, which is one of the better predictors. But SAG has differed from the Oscars before. In other words, no one has the clear path, we’ll see how people are feeling closer to.

Best Actress:
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

  • As much as everyone talks Portman, I really don’t see ANY momentum for her performance anywhere, and losing the SAG was a coup de grace. That’s where Portman could have won and I think that wrecked any momnetum. And Huppert is never gonna find the wide support. So this is Stone’s to coast into.

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

  • God, what a great category. But yeah, Mahershala Ali (minus a few weird diversions) has this one on lock. Good, he should.

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

  • Same as Supporting Actor. Davis probably would have ran away with Actress, but she’s especially gonna run away with Supporting Actress. Great category, but she’s got this one on lock.

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

  • Yeah, I’m willing to believe there’s gonna be a surprise here, but between Moonlight moving to Screenplay (giving Jenkins a clear award for recognition) and the DGA win for Chazelle, it’s becoming pretty clear that all momentum is shifting to him.

Best Original Screenplay:
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
The Lobster

  • Still holding the line here for now. We’ll wait for the WGA Award, but I really think Manchester‘s script is gonna end up being the ultimate sign of its recognition.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

  • Yeah, this was a clear lock once Moonlight moved in.

Best Original Score:
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

  • If you think there’s a chance for anything else…

Best Original Song:
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land
City of Stars” – La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
“The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

  • Again, if you think there’s a chance for anything else…you’re not totally wrong. Lin-Manuel’s EGOT is a powerful narrative and if La La Land‘s two songs split the vote, that would be the one to sneak in. But I think they’re gonna end up totally pushing “City of Stars” given that it’s become the movie’s theme song,

Best Cinematography:
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

  • I’ll see how things are being felt closer to, which is why my prediction is holding where it is, but Lion won the ASC, which makes this race kind of interesting. Granted, the ASC is a small part of the Academy, but that’s where the passion for this category is.

Best Costume Design:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

  • It’s that canary-yellow dress. It’s pretty much one of the iconic film looks this year, La La Land‘s general love will get it this one.

Best Editing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

  • Yeah, technical sweep, same deal, no surprises. It’s how Titanic and Lord of the Rings and Ben-Hur got the awards they did. Movies people love that are really technically well put-together.

Best Production Design:
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

  • Drinking game idea. Make primary colored Jello shots. Take one every time La La Land wins. Your liver will hate you.

 Best Sound Editing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

Best Sound Mixing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

  • Just a quick review. Sound Editing is the creation of the sounds, Mixing is the way they’re put together. Editing almost always goes to Action flicks of some kind due to what you have to produce. Mixing is usually a toss-up but if a film is on a tech sweep, it’s got a pretty good shot. La La Land being a musical means the Mix is probably going to be at the forefront and people may just vote for the musical because why not. Hacksaw Ridge is the most prestigey action flick here, so my guess is it takes Editing.

Best Visual Effects:
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

  • There’s some seriously great challengers here, but no one is going to be able to touch the photorealism of The Jungle Book and its mo-capped animals.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

  • Tons of seamless prosthetics? Yeah, Star Trek Beyond is the right sort of impressive for this makeup work.

Best Animated Feature Film:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

  • Zootopia has sooooo much momentum here. Kubo is the only possible challenger (and one I would love to see win) but I have a feeling Laika can’t match Disney’s awards campaign cash.

Best Documentary:
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
OJ Made in America

  • OJ: Made in America is about as buzzy as any of these have got. 13th is your challenger here thanks to Netflix DYING to get something a win to legitimize themselves here, but I think the sheer density of love for OJ: Made in America keeps this in the competition.
  • Fun fact. If OJ: Made in America wins, it will be the longest winner in Oscars history.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
The Salesman

  • Prediction here. The Salesman is from currently-banned (sort of, it’s complicated) from the United States filmmaker Asghar Farhadi. The Foreign Language competition so tends to get overlooked that I get the feeling anything to get the name in front of people will help. The Salesman just got a name in front of a whole bunch of people and I’m sure Hollywood would love to make a political statement as a big “SCREW YOU TRUMP.” The Salesman has a WAY better shot than it did before,  so much so that I think it’s the quiet frontrunner even with the love for Toni Erdmann. 

Best Documentary Short
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

Best Animated Short
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

Best Live Action Short
Ennemis Interieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

  • *shrugs* Shorts are hard.

Oscars Watch 2017: The Less-Depressing Campaign: THE NOMINATIONS ARE HERE

I want to waste no further adieu in build-up, so let’s dive right in and find out what got nominated for the 85th Academy Awards.

If it’s in red, that means I didn’t predict it.

Best Picture:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

  • So no huge surprises here in the way of snubs or shockers. Silence, Loving, or Jackie were already out of the race a while ago and Deadpool didn’t end up Cinderellaing its way in. PGA without Deadpool. 
  • Still thrilled that Arrival ended up making the show it did, and glad that Lion didn’t lose momentum.

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

  • Again, pretty much just the SAG 5. I guess I’ll finally watch Captain Fantastic, it does feel good to see recognition for Mortensen.

Best Actress:
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

  • AGH. I PULLED RUTH NEGGA AT THE LAST MINUTE. FOOLISH. It’s a great performance, I just thought that the pretty much total ignoring of Loving would take her out of the running. Still, glad to recognize good work.
  • Also, wow Isabelle Huppert! The little European performance that could. I guess I need to suck it up and see Elle. 
  • And here comes the first one that irritates me. It’s not just snubbing Amy Adams for Arrival, where she does wonderful and emotionally complex work. Or Annette Benning, a long underrated actress who apparently does something worthwhile.
    It’s that we are AGAIN recognizing Meryl Streep for coasting on a frankly lazy performance. She has not pushed herself in years and she still gets nominated for work that would get other people rightfully ignored. Florence Foster Jenkins is really not interesting or challenging and she’s a large part of that. “It’s Meryl” is absolutely not enough anymore.

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

  • WHOA MICHAEL SHANNON, AWESOME. Not just because the one he managed to replace here is Hugh Grant (my least favorite of the likely nominees), but because he does legitimately strong work as a Jim Thompson-type sheriff in Nocturnal Animals. And also because Michael Shannon is THE BOMB and had a great year and deserves to be recognized.
  • This is probably my favorite category. A strong group of actors doing varied work in really great movies. Everyone here deserves all the recognition.

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

  • Again, no real surprises. This is a category that was set pretty early on and didn’t seem to have any real shockers, which meant it was a category prepped for it. No real motion besides which Hidden Figures actress was going in.

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

  • Hooray 4/5 of this list. A strong group of people.
  • UGH MEL GIBSON. Hacksaw Ridge is bad and Gibson does not deserve to have a career revival for that toxic propaganda. It’s a worse film about faith than Silence, which got shafted, so this particularly raises my hackles.

Best Original Screenplay:
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
The Lobster

  • I called this one perfectly! So…hooray for The Lobster! Seriously, The Lobster is an amazingly clever and real piece of writing and it absolutely deserves to be recognized.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

  • Looks like this is where Nocturnal Animals‘ surprising run through the Writing Awards stops. Otherwise, pretty standard stuff.

Best Original Score:
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

  • PASSENGERS! PASSENGERS?! PASSENGERS?!! I don’t even remember that the film had a score, much less a best score and much less having ignored Arrival for it. Also, Passengers SUCKS. So…no. No. I get why it’s here, but no.
  • While this is La La Land‘s category, I want to shout out the rest of these scores. They are all legitimately awesome, especially Mica Levi’s Jackie score. Mica Levi is an awesome composer and I hope we keep seeing her.

Best Original Song:
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land
City of Stars” – La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
“The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

  • Man, those Documentary songs always sneak up on you. Always a surprise there.
  • Other than that, pretty expected. Just saying though, we had Popstar and Sing Street this year and this is the Original Song category? Come on guys, some variety would really be nice.
  • It’s weird that La La Land isn’t getting “Another Day of Sun” or “Someone in the Crowd” nominated, they’re way better songs. And which “City of Stars” is this?

Best Cinematography:
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

  • Again, called this one dead-on. This is a gorgeously shot group of films and I’m thrilled to see them all here.
  • Bradford Young is the first African-American person ever nominated for this award. That’s pretty cool.

Best Costume Design:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

  • Allied should have been an obvious one, can’t believe I missed that.
  • Other than that, makes sense. Mostly period pictures plus the primary colored pretty that is La La Land. 

Best Editing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

  • Again, no real surprises. A lot of films with big editing challenges, so the Most Editing award. The nonlinear time of Arrival, the intense Hacksaw Ridge portion of Hacksaw Ridge, the crosscutting finale of Hell or High Water, the musical numbers of La La Land, and three different timelines in Moonlight. Pretty much just pick the hardest movies to edit, and there’s your award.

Best Production Design:
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

  • Thank god Hail, Caesar! got something. In a just world, it would have popped up in Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor, and Original Song. I’ll do for it at least getting recognized here.
  • PASSENGERS AGAIN! NO. FUCK THAT. Passengers looks like an Apple Store in that mall you can’t really afford to go to. There are so many movies with INFINITELY more impressive design. No. Why? Why do we do this? The Witch, Silence, Popstar, 10 Cloverfield Lane. No.

 Best Sound Editing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

Best Sound Mixing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

  • Don’t know enough about sound to make any real judgments here.
  • 13 Hours apparently is an industry respected mix, so that’s the surprise for us, not so much for the insiders.
  • Sully’s only nomination. Damn, that one went out of the public eye fast. Other than that? No surprises, just filling out the technical awards.

Best Visual Effects:
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

  • If you don’t know, Kubo is a big deal for being here. Only the second Animated Feature ever nominated in this category, the work being pulled off on that movie really shows and I’m proud to see it here.
  • Deepwater Horizon is a surprise! It must be mostly Practical, I guess I’ll give that a watch. Barry Jenkins did rave about it.
  • Yay Doctor Strange! That’s a legitimately impressive piece of visual effects work, actually pushing what we see on screen. Same with The Jungle Book. Rogue One must be there for the idea of Tarkin more than the actual execution.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

  • HAHAHAHAHA Suicide Squad. I guess. The design work isn’t good, but I guess the makeup is actually pretty impressive, and there’s a hell of a lot of it.
  • A Man Called Ove has a makeup team that’s made a surprise show before, so good to see them following up.

Best Animated Feature Film:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

  • Pixar gets left out for basically the second time ever. Finding Dory was popular and did well, but was definitely not quite up to snuff with the rest of this category. I really thought the standard Pixar love would get it in here.
  • Haven’t seen the foreign ones, but I am excited to see both.
  • Other ones are expected. This is still Zootopia‘s to lose.

Best Documentary:
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
OJ Made in America

  • Damn, really surprised Weiner didn’t show up here. Mad relevant right now! That’s actually pretty shocking. And shocking Cameraperson didn’t show up. Maybe Fire at Sea is more relevant and Life, Animated is crowdpleasing.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
The Salesman

  • Haven’t seen any of these yet. Excited for a chance to see them.

Best Documentary Short
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

Best Animated Short
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

Best Live Action Short
Ennemis Interieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

  • Seen two of these. Both Animated.

TAKEAWAYS:

Stats:
62 films nominated.
La La Land ties Oscar nominations all-time record with 14.
Arrival and Moonlight both garner 8 nominations.
Hacksaw Ridge, Lion, and Manchester by the Sea all garner 6 nominations.
Hell or High Water and Fences both garner 4 nominations.

  • Overall, not too bad this year. Some major snubs like Amy Adams or Silence notwithstanding, this was a largely deserving crop of movies, so any cull is gonna yield some good results. The bad (Streep, Gibson) isn’t as egregious this year. Irritating, but not awful.
  • Original Song continues to be a shockingly uncreative category in a year loaded to the brim with musicals.
  • Arrival is definitely the surprise story for this year. A film I really loved, but expected to miss the Academy. Instead, it’s by-the-numbers one of the fiercest competitors this year.

Personal Success Rate: 82%

  • Where’d I go wrong? My biggest above-the-line miss is in Actress, where I lost faith in one and stubbornly refused to give the other. Then a series of Below-The-Line tech awards that I partially missed due to a lack of inside knowledge (i.e. not necessarily knowing how the Guilds felt about Deepwater Horizon for example) or missing the legitimate surprises (i.e. Kubo or Passengers).

Oscars Watch 2017: The Less-Depressing Campaign: Final Calls Before The Nominations

Well, guys, we’re finally here. Tomorrow, the nominations come out, and you all discover me for the guessing fraud that I am. But before I’m exposed, why don’t I make one last call for what the nominations are gonna look like? Forged out of Guild Awards, other predictions, and stubborn gut feelings, this is my official prediction for the 85th Academy Awards.

Commentary comes where anything has been added or changed. I’m not calling Shorts because…who could?

Best Picture:
La La Land
Moonlight
Manchester by the Sea
Fences
Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Arrival
Lion

  • Officially calling 9 nominees for Best Picture this year, there’s a lot that’s getting enough attention to make over the usual 8.
  • Silence, sadly, is gone. Paramount completely screwed up this release by being scared of it. No early watching, no attempt to sell it to the faith community, no wide guild support, no angle. Silence could have been, but I think it’s going to have a longer life than this award season. Alas, this is not the article for that.

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

  • Officially taking the writing on the wall. Captain Fantastic apparently ran a smart and quiet campaign and got Viggo Mortensen some attention. Good for him.

Best Actress:
Amy Adams, Arrival
Annette Benning, 20th Century Women
Isabelle Huppert, Elle 
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land

  • I’ll get into it a little later, but Arrival got seriously major attention from the guilds and early awards love. So I think Amy Adams’ central performance is going to make it in over the surprisingly inert Loving.

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

  • I really think it’s weird that Octavia Spencer is the one with awards momentum here. She’s kind of barely in the movie, and not really doing anything we’ve not seen her do before. Janelle Monae is way more interesting, but whatever, anyone from that cast getting recognized is a good thing.

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Garth Davis, Lion
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

  • The first story here is the way that the Guilds pretty much anointed Arrival. The main frontrunners have played really well, but Arrival managed to get WGA/DGA/PGA, which means that at least in terms of nominations this is gonna be a force to be reckoned with. Which is why (deservingly) Villeneuve is sitting in this category for putting it all together.
  • So that leaves the final slot. I’m going to go along with the DGA sweep and give it to Lion given that the film got nominated in both the main category and the first-timer category.

Best Original Screenplay:
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
The Lobster

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

  • Going along with how Silence seems to be getting totally ignored for creative awards seems right here. Nocturnal Animals has been getting some surprise love, so seems right to throw it in here, especially given the WGA and Golden Globes admiration.

Best Original Score:
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
The BFG

  • Yeah…so this is La La Land‘s category. Everything else is just to fill it out, Hurwitz’s score is delightful and powerful, and a musical this popular isn’t going to lose the Score award.
  • Why the rest? I think the way Mica Levi’s score pulls Jackie along is going to get attention as the film gets a lot of technical and below-the-line attention. Lion and Moonlight both have pretty essential scores in the way that they play in the film and have been noted in a lot of critic work. The BFG is John Williams. Never count him out.

Best Original Song:
“Runnin’” – Hidden Figures
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land
City of Stars” – La La Land
“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana
Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls

Best Cinematography:
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

  • A really solid list here recognizing a pretty gorgeous bunch of films. This is pretty much just the Guild Awards, which I think are a pretty good measuring stick of where things are in this category.

Best Costume Design:
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hidden Figures
Jackie
La La Land

  • I think this is gonna be a mostly period-flick heavy year minus the technical tear La La Land is gonna go on. That was my guiding principle, taking guesses from the Guild Awards and other guesses. Hidden Figures is honestly a gut call.

Best Editing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

  • This is pretty much the Dramatic Editor’s Guild Awards with La La Land subbed in because Tom Cross won on Whiplash. I don’t think we’re gonna find too many surprises here.

Best Production Design:
Arrival
Hail, Caesar!
Jackie
La La Land
Silence

  • This is an award that really favors period-picture work as well, so I’m going with the biggest works from that with an indulgence pick for Hail, Caesar! Then La La Land because you should know the score by now.

Best Sound Editing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Silence

Best Sound Mixing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

  • Totally honest here? I took wild guesses based on other predictions. I will learn to call Sound awards one day!

 

Best Visual Effects:
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

  • Since I put Arrival ALL over the place for technical awards, I’m just gonna go ahead and stay consistent and put Arrival in Visual Effects as well.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Deadpool
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond

Best Animated Feature Film:
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Best Documentary:
13th
Cameraperson
I Am Not Your Negro
OJ Made in America
Weiner

  • Cameraperson is one that’s had enough buzz and collecting more and more awards that I think it’s going to lock in its place here over Fire at Sea. 

Best Foreign Language Film:
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
The Salesman

Final (Predicted) Stats:
Most Nominations:
La La Land – 13 nominations
Arrival – 10 nominations
Moonlight – 8 nominations
Manchester by the Sea and Lion – 6 nominations
Hidden Figures and Hacksaw Ridge – 5 nominations
43 total films nominated.

 

Oscars Watch 2017: The Less-Depressing Campaign: Best Picture

Editor’s Note: Yes, there was originally a different article here. Yes, it was super dumb. No, I’m not going to subject you to it all again.

Do you love political campaigns. Is the current nationwide “Zack Snyder directing a multi-car pileup”-esque Presidential election really getting you down?

Then come join me for Awards Season! It’s all the fun of pitched ideological combat with complete disregard for actual substance without any of the depressing stakes or increasing sense of existential dread at the future. Plus, you get to watch a whole bunch of movies!

We’re talking, of course, about the Academy Awards here. The Oscars, if you’re nasty. It may not be for a few months, but that doesn’t mean we can’t talk about it now.

“But Brandon,” you don’t say but I pretend you do, “how can you have a discussion about these movies? Not only have you only seen two, but most of them haven’t even been officially released?”

You sweet summer child.

Fun fact about the Academy Awards: They’re rarely about the actual movies. They’re about how movies are perceived and make the voters feel. As long as the movie has a reasonably strong critical reception (unless you’re Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), the appearance of quality and importance is enough. Plus, thanks to the Festival circuit, we can already see the conversations that are being had around it, so waiting for them to come out isn’t necessary. This is shot-calling, not criticism.

The Awards are also about the quality of the campaign! Did the studio put the movie in front of enough people with a clear enough case?  Does the studio have the connections and the infrastructure to really get their case out there? Being good means nothing if nobody knows it.

That’s why we’re actually gonna start with the big kahuna. The Best Picture race. The prestige from which all other prestige flows and cases are ultimately made.

I’m gonna break it down into Sure Thing, Maybe Thing, and No-Go. If you need an explanation…you shouldn’t need an explanation. I’m also going to remind you that things can change. Remember how few of these have come out and remember that at one point The Birth of a Nation was the front-runner to win.


SURE THINGS: 

La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Fences

Loving
Silence

La La Land and Manchester by the Sea are both riding almost universal festival acclaim into the Oscars. While La La Land‘s throwback nature and popular leads make it the clear frontrunner, never underestimate something that really knows how to pull the heartstrings as much as Manchester seems to be able to. Plus, both are headlined with what are apparently all-timer performances. Keep in mind that Actors are the biggest part of the Academy.

With Denzel Washington writing, directing, and starring and Viola Davis starring in the same role she won a Tony for, Fences is blessed with star power in every pore. But its focus on a black story told by black storytellers may be much more important to its success as an answer to #OscarsSoWhite.

Loving is pitched right at the Oscar sweet spot. Simple and historical with a performance focus. A film you can get and agree with and a filmmaker who’s been earning recognition for a while.

As for Silence, it’s Marty. Come on now. Let’s be real.

MAYBE THINGS:

Hidden Figures
Lion
Live by Night
Moonlight
Sully
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge

There’s a few different reasons I put these in the Maybe pile.

Moonlight, Lion, and Arrival are all films that have played well at multiple festivals, which would put them in the same category as La La Land and Manchester. But those films have a universality of praise that made them obvious frontrunners, as well as less complicating factors.

Moonlight is from a young distributor and has an abnormal narrative structure, which means it’s anyone’s guess how it plays large. Arrival fits in with the “1 Sci-Fi Film” norm and Amy Adams is a perpetual Oscars bridesmaid, but I wonder how the mix of super-heady and super-emotional will play with people, especially with Villeneuve’s icy style. Lion is still a largely unknown, the kind of picture that a lot of critics are still feeling out their reaction to. It is from the Weinsteins, but the Weinsteins don’t have the clout they once did.

Sometimes, it also comes down to the decisions studios make. What are they gonna push?

Warner Brothers, I think, figured out the benefits of going all-in for one movie with Fury Road. To replicate that, they’re gonna be ultimately choosing between Sully and Live by Night. Sully is the clearly respectable picture, and is right up Middle America’s alley. But Live by Night, though a complete unknown, has the newfound Ben Affleck prestige, and great gangster epics have always done well. Sully‘s narrative slightness may be damaging, but if Live by Night doesn’t deliver, it may be their best option.

Paramount on the other hand has a few different options between Silence, Arrival, Florence Foster Jenkins, and Hacksaw Ridge. Hacksaw Ridge is one of the most intriguing possibilities, a potential comeback narrative for Mel Gibson and a film that did get as much really positive buzz as it did criticism, which gets controversy in there. That being said, has Mel Gibson quite earned his redemption yet? We’ll see.

And then we have Hidden Figures, which has all the markings of a potential Oscar superstar. Most notably as a tale of forgotten history and a strong cast that also stands as an answer to #OscarsSoWhite (along with marking a potential character actress groove for Janelle Monae). But we’ve seen very little from it since it just entered the race, and the pedigree behind the camera doesn’t quite match that in front, which gives me pause.


NO-GO:

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
The Birth of a Nation
Allied
Rules Don’t Apply
20th Century Women

Not to be dismissive, but let’s be dismissive.

I’m as shocked as you are, but unless the Academy screenings of Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk aren’t in 120 FPS, I think Ang Lee is gonna miss the Oscars this year. Powerful story, but no one can get over the tech.

Never hinge your whole campaign on one person. The Birth of a Nation learned that the hard way.

The Brangelina Divorce and the rumors may be good for Allied‘s profile, but unless it’s a home run, that’s all people are gonna see.

Rules Don’t Apply looks lame, the return of Warren Beatty aside.

A24 is still figuring out the Oscar campaigns. Don’t expect to see multiples in the Best Picture race, 20th Century Women has acting awards to focus on.


Overall, this isn’t gonna be a year of any single film dominating, nor is it going to be a horse race. Barring a complete swooning over La La Land (which is very possible), it’s going to be a series of smaller works scrapping for victory. Should be fun.

Next Week: Best Actor